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Bottom-Up Analysis of Future PV System Cost Development
E. Vartiainen, G. Masson, C. Breyer, D. Moser, E. Román Medina, E. Bosch, P. Macé
Cost Reduction, PV System, PV Economics, PV Module, Learning Rate
Finance, Markets and Policies
Subtopic: Costs, Economics, Finance and Markets
Event: 37th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition
Session: 7EO.3.3
2046 - 2049
ISBN: 3-936338-73-6
Paper DOI: 10.4229/EUPVSEC20202020-7EO.3.3
0,00 EUR
Document(s): paper, presentation


Solar photovoltaics (PV) is already the cheapest form of new electricity generation almost all over the world. PV system prices are still expected to decrease by about 60% from 2020 to 2050. PV system and module price reduction is usually projected by applying historical learning rates (LR) on the main cost components. In this study, a detailed bottom-up analysis showed that the future PV module LR is likely to be close to the long-term historical average of 23.5% whereas it has been about 40% for the past decade. Module and cell efficiency is by far the most important cost component and it will cover about half of the future price reduction. Efficiency improvement will also decrease Balance of System (BoS) cost, Operational Expenditure (OPEX) and Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE).