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Development of a Reliability Model for the Estimation of the Loss of Load Probability and O&M Cost for an Off-Grid PV System
M. Theristis, G.C. Bakos, I.A. Papazoglou
Reliability, Stand-Alone PV System, Markovian Models, Optimum Sizing, O&M Cost
PV Systems
Subtopic: Off-grid Applications
Event: 27th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition
Session: 5BV.1.31
4245 - 4248
ISBN: 3-936338-28-0
Paper DOI: 10.4229/27thEUPVSEC2012-5BV.1.31
0,00 EUR
Document(s): paper


A residential standalone photovoltaic system is evaluated in terms of its optimum configuration taking into consideration cost and reliability aspects. Given a specific electricity demand, the optimum combination of PV arrays and batteries is assessed using the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) as a criterion. Both the sizing of the system and the reliability of its components are also taken into consideration for assessing the LOLP. The supply performance of the system is simulated based on hourly demand and meteorological data while the stochastic behaviour of the system, with regards to its reliability, is simulated by a Markov model. Literature based failure data are used to quantify the reliability model and, thus, estimate the mean operation and maintenance cost of the system.