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Economic Analysis of Future Thin Film Solar Cells - Cost Estimates for High-Efficiency Compound Thin Film Tandem Solar Cells Based on Process Design
T. Inoue, K. Yamada
Cost Reduction, Economic Analysis, Tandem, High Efficiency
Subtopic: PV Business Opportunities
Event: 31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition
Session: 7DV.4.43
3191 - 3193
ISBN: 3-936338-39-6
Paper DOI: 10.4229/EUPVSEC20152015-7DV.4.43
0,00 EUR
Document(s): paper, poster


This paper examines the cost reduction potential of PV systems as technology develops to implement photovoltaic electricity systems on a large scale. The cost structures of present and future PV systems are calculated based on process design methodology. To assess future PV technology, we designed manufacturing process of different type of solar cells consisting of monolayer and multi-junction types including 4 terminal based on CIGS or III-V semiconductor materials. We have developed reliable calculation methodology for cost estimation of future PV technology. We aggregated the costs of equipment, labor, raw materials, and utilities required to manufacture each type of PV system based on our original equipment database. According to our cost-structure estimate, the manufacturing cost of monolayer CIGS solar cells decrease from US$0.79/Wp to US$0.45/Wp in the case of 20% monolayer module efficiency after 2030. The manufacturing cost of new CIGS tandem solar cells is calculated to be US$0.33-0.45/Wp after achieving aggressive technology target. As these results, important technologies to be developed are to control defects and interface of cell layers. This methodology of the relations between technology progress and cost estimation clarifies business opportunity of various type of PV systems.