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Lifetime Prediction of Photovoltaic Modules: Towards a Generalized Physics-Based Approach
I. Kaaya, S. Ramesh, A. Alzade, A. Tuomiranta, J. Ascencio-Vásquez, D. Saelens, I. Gordon
Degradation, Lifetime, Reliability, PV Module, Modelling
Photovoltaic Modules and BoS Components
Subtopic: Materials for PV Modules, Durability, Reliability and Accelerated Testing Methods
Event: 8th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion
Session: 3DO.18.2
ISBN: 3-936338-86-8
0,00 EUR
Document(s): presentation


The PV industry and more specifically the field of PV reliability, attempts to understand and quantify failures, underperformance, degradation, and lifetime as those items are crucial for PV projects bankability. Despite its importance, there is only a slow development in lifetime prediction models. In this paper, we go beyond the state-of-the-art by proposing a physics-based approach for lifetime prediction of PV modules considering many different aspects (such as variations in bill of materials, technology, installation designs, etc.). Our approach is physics-based depending on thermal, moisture ingress, mechanical, and on a series of different degradation rate and reliability models of the PV electrical circuit parameters such as series and shunt resistances, transmittance, and saturation current. The proposed approach is capable of simulating the effects of different material and PV installation on degradation/lifetime of a PV module. We present a case study on a BIPV setting in three different climates using three different scenarios: open-rack, ventilated and unventilated. We believe that this is a step towards a generalized approach for lifetime prediction that is still lagging in developments.