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Operational Assessment of a Short Term PV Production Forecast Model
M. Zappia, M. Orecchia, F. Belfiore
Subtopic: PV System Reliability and Availability
Event: 28th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition
Session: 5BV.4.44
ISBN: 3-936338-33-7
0,00 EUR
Document(s): poster


Photovoltaic energy production forecast is crucial for an efficient dispatch and trading of solar energy and for a suitable management of the electricity grid. In this paper we present a PV productivity forecast model developed and implemented by Golder Associates, based on a mathematical formula as a function of irradiance on PV modules surface, ambient temperature and wind speed. The model inputs are both hourly historical irradiance data and hourly meteorological forecast data, thus minimizing meteorological forecast errors through iterative mathematical algorithms. While in general the research in the last decades has concentrated mainly on forecasting solar irradiation, in particular yearly forecasts based mostly on historical meteorological data, this paper presents a novel approach which combines sitespecific observed data and forecast meteorological data, able to predict the PV plant productivity by providing as output the hourly forecast energy production every day, up to 96 hours. The model has been applied to the real case of a large scale PV plant in Italy for one year and the results of the application are also discussed in the paper.