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Requirements of the Paris Climate Agreement for the Coming 10 Years on Investments, Technical Roadmap, and Expansion of PV Manufacturing
P.P. Altermatt, Y. Yang, Y. Chen, X. Zhang, D. Chen, G. Xu, Z. Feng
Cost Reduction, Economic Analysis, Financing, Manufacturing and Process, CO2 Footprint
Finance, Markets and Policies
Subtopic: Policies and Scenarios for Renewables, Societal and Global Challenges
Event: 37th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition
Session: 7CP.1.2
1999 - 2004
ISBN: 3-936338-73-6
Paper DOI: 10.4229/EUPVSEC20202020-7CP.1.2
0,00 EUR
Document(s): paper, presentation


So far, PV has contributed to CO2 mitigation only marginally. To contribute its share to enacting the Paris Climate Agreement as a backbone of the energy transition, PV must grow with a compound annual-growth rate (CAGR) of at least 18% in the next 10 years. If PV grows slowlier, high growth rates will be necessary in about 15 years’ time when manufacturing capacity is big: every year by the size of today’s PV industry. This would be a difficult task to achieve. Growing by 18% for the next 10 years is therefore necessary and requires additional effort. We recently collected data about capital expenditure for production expansion in the entire value chain from silicon distillation to module assembly. In our 18% growth scenario, the required capex will be about 400 billion RMB in total over the next 10 years. This is about 58 billion US$ or about 49 billion €. Just a few big investors can secure a large market share, and we therefore expect that upscaling the PV manufacturing capacities will not be the bottleneck in enacting the Paris Climate Agreement. We show by considering the origins of past progress that mainstream PV needs continuing contributions from research laboratories around the world. For this reason, we outline seven urgent R&D topics that help enacting the Paris Climate Agreement directly.