login

Search documents

Browse topics

Document details

 
Title:
 
Validation of Solar Irradiance of the Japan Meteorological Agency Meso-Scale Model: Investigation of Error Cause Around Tokyo, Japan
 
Author(s):
 
K.-I. Shimose, H. Ohtake, Y. Yamada, J.G.S. Gari da Silva Fonseca Jr., T. Takashima, T. Oozeki
 
Keywords:
 
PV System, PV Power Forecast, Solar Irradiation Forecast, Validation
 
Topic:
 
PV Systems
Subtopic: Large PV Power Plants and Distributed PV: System Aspects and Grid Connection
Event: 27th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition
Session: 5AV.2.36
 
Pages:
 
4132 - 4135
ISBN: 3-936338-28-0
Paper DOI: 10.4229/27thEUPVSEC2012-5AV.2.36
 
Price:
 
 
0,00 EUR
 
Document(s): paper
 

Abstract/Summary:


For the stabilization of the electric power system which takes account of varying photovoltaic (PV) power, it is very important to know how much PV power can be generated on the following day. The varying cause of PV power production is mainly associated with weather condition so that the prediction of the PV power production is depends on the accuracy of the weather forecast values such as solar irradiance. In this study, in order to validate solar irradiance of the weather forecast from the Japan Meteorological Agency Meso-Scale Model (JMA-NHM), the error cause of relatively large error case of the forecast solar irradiance in JMA-MSM is investigated around Tokyo, Japan. The extracted 30 cases are categorized as overestimate or underestimate and investigated weather conditions. For the case of overestimate, when the thick stratocumulus appears at the low level, the JMA-MSM fails to simulate the low-level cloud. This is the one of the reason why the forecast solar irradiance becomes overestimate. For the case of underestimate, when the thin clouds appear through the all levels, the JMA-MSM fails to simulate the mid-level and high-level clouds. This is the one of the reason why the forecast solar irradiance becomes underestimate.