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Very Short-Term Solar Irradiation Forecasting Method Using State Estimation Based on Kalman Filters for PV-Diesel Hybrid Systems
J.A. Notholt
Hybrid, Plant Control, Forecasting
PV System Performance and Integration
Subtopic: Design and Operation of PV Systems
Event: 33rd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition
Session: 6BV.2.9
2343 - 2345
ISBN: 3-936338-47-7
Paper DOI: 10.4229/EUPVSEC20172017-6BV.2.9
0,00 EUR
Document(s): paper, poster


The purpose of this article is to provide insight of a new simple forecasting method based on a state-estimation algorithm known as the Kalman Filter. While the accuracy of such algorithm is not comparable to state-of-the-art forecasting algorithms for PV-power production it does not require any internet connection, eyefish cameras or time intensive training. The algorithm was tested with several months of real high-resolution data with adequate results for the intended application: The minimization of the necessary spinning reserve on a PV-Diesel hybrid system to increase the solar fraction and reduce diesel consumption.