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Validation Study of Solar PV Energy Simulation Tools and Methodologies
M. Aspinall, M. Cahill, E. Noirault
Evaluation, Performance, PV System, System Performance, Modelling / Modeling
PV System Performance and Integration
Subtopic: Design and Operation of PV Systems
Event: 33rd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition
Session: 6CO.14.2
1983 - 1985
ISBN: 3-936338-47-7
Paper DOI: 10.4229/EUPVSEC20172017-6CO.14.2
0,00 EUR
Document(s): paper, presentation


The global solar PV market has grown rapidly in over the last decade, with a significant increase in the volume of installations since 2010. Investment continues apace but as the industry matures and secondary market competition increases, margins are becoming tighter. The imperative for accurate energy yield prediction is evident. Modeling methods used to forecast energy generation prior to project construction have evolved throughout this period. As the number of operational utility scale projects grows, actual production data can be used to assess the validity of current methods and standard assumptions. The purpose of this validation study is to determine the accuracy of current pre-construction prediction methodology and identify areas for refinement. The study indicates that there is a tendency for current pre-construction methods to be slightly conservative and that current pre-construction modeling methods may be lagging technological advancements. However, the variance between pre-construction energy modeling and operational assessments for projects constructed in recent years is increasing.