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Title:
 
Uncertainties in PV Modelling and Monitoring
 
Author(s):
 
M. Richter, K. de Brabandere, A. Woyte, J. Kalisch, T. Schmidt, E. Lorenz
 
Keywords:
 
Monitoring, Performance, Modelling / Modeling, Uncertainty, Grid Connected
 
Topic:
 
OPERATIONS, PERFORMANCE AND RELIABILITY OF PHOTOVOLTAICS (FROM CELLS TO SYSTEMS)
Subtopic: Operation of PV Systems and Plants
Event: 31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition
Session: 5BO.12.5
 
Pages:
 
1683 - 1691
ISBN: 3-936338-39-6
Paper DOI: 10.4229/EUPVSEC20152015-5BO.12.5
 
Price:
 
 
0,00 EUR
 
Document(s): paper
 

Abstract/Summary:


Quantifying the photovoltaic (PV) energy yield is subject to several uncertainties introduced by the different elements in the PV energy conversion chain. Project developers and investors need clear statements when up-front evaluating the financial profitability and risk of a PV investment. Once the plant is in operation, owners, asset managers and O&M contractors monitor its performance. They want to operate and maintain their portfolios efficiently. Hence, they need unambiguous performance indicators that can trigger alarms reliably. For both purposes, reliable uncertainty measures are essential. The uncertainties introduced by the different elements in the PV energy conversion chain are reviewed in this paper, based on literature and field experience and typical values for practical application are provided. This paper recommends clear guidelines for uncertainty assessment in PV modelling and monitoring of grid-connected PV systems. It offers guidance on the correct combination and propagation of the different uncertainties affecting both PV modelling and the monitoring of PV systems.