login

Search documents

Browse topics

Document details

 
Title:
 
PV Energy Yield Nowcasting Combining Sky Imaging with Simulation Models
 
Author(s):
 
D. Anagnostos, T. Schmidt, H. Goverde, J. Kalisch, F. Catthoor, D. Soudris
 
Keywords:
 
Forecasting, Sky Images, Modeling
 
Topic:
 
OPERATIONS, PERFORMANCE AND RELIABILITY OF PHOTOVOLTAICS (FROM CELLS TO SYSTEMS)
Subtopic: Operation of PV Systems and Plants
Event: 31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition
Session: 5AO.7.2
 
Pages:
 
1552 - 1555
ISBN: 3-936338-39-6
Paper DOI: 10.4229/EUPVSEC20152015-5AO.7.2
 
Price:
 
 
0,00 EUR
 
Document(s): paper, presentation
 

Abstract/Summary:


The ongoing growth of renewable energy installations is slowly shifting the energy mix for grids worldwide. This development is hopeful for a sustainable future, but also imposes additional challenges to grid regulators. In this context, short term solar irradiation forecasting is becoming relevant for both interconnected and isolated grids as a way to balance the energy production and demand. The actual energy yield of a photovoltaic installation though is a function of many parameters and, more importantly, in these short time scales is highly affected by the dynamics of the modules themselves. This work presents the coupling of high temporal-spatial resolution sky imaging forecasts with a detailed electro-thermal PV simulation model, suitable for fine-grain temporal and spatial transient analysis. The final outcome is a forecast of the actual energy yield of the installation for horizons of typically 15 minutes, with detailed information on occurrences of sudden ramps. The proposed method achieves a 5% improvement in RMS error over persistence, for forecast horizons of about 5 minutes.