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Evaluating the Effectiveness of Past and Future Feed-In Tariff Policy in Great Britain Using an Agent-Based Model
P. Pearce, R. Slade
Funding and Incentives, Strategy, Modelling / Modeling
PV Economics, Markets and Policies
Subtopic: PV Economics and Markets
Event: 33rd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition
Session: 7DO.9.5
2822 - 2826
ISBN: 3-936338-47-7
Paper DOI: 10.4229/EUPVSEC20172017-7DO.9.5
0,00 EUR
Document(s): paper, presentation


A new agent-based model was used to investigate the effect of feed-in tariffs on the adoption of smallscale solar photovoltaic arrays by households in Great Britain. Both historical (2010-2016) and future (2016-2021) scenarios are modelled, allowing comparison with actual installation data and near-future projections. Agent-based models provide a natural modelling paradigm to include population heterogeneity, non-optimization decision-making and the effect of a social network. Observed installation patterns in the period 2010-2016 can be modelled accurately by considering decision-making based on four factors: household income, the payback period of the investment in the array, the number of adopters in a household’s social network, and the capital cost of the installation. The level of feedin tariffs significantly affects the adoption rate, so a realistic historical subsidy scenario was compared with several alternative scenarios. This indicates that an improved strategy for reducing feed-in tariffs over time could have given higher deployment at lower cost. The model is also used to project future deployment considering the effect of different feed-in tariff levels, electricity prices, and the cost of photovoltaics.