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Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting Based on Sunshine Number
M. Paulescu, O. Mares, D. Calinoiu, E. Paulescu
Solar Radiation, Forecasting, Modelling / Modeling
PV Systems - Performance, Applications and Integration
Subtopic: Solar Resource and Forecasting
Event: 35th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition
Session: 6BV.1.9
1770 - 1773
ISBN: 3-936338-50-7
Paper DOI: 10.4229/35thEUPVSEC20182018-6BV.1.9
0,00 EUR
Document(s): paper, poster


In this paper a new procedure for nowcasting solar irradiation is proposed. The procedure is based on an improved version of the two-state model for nowcasting solar irradiance at ground level. Principally, the procedure sums-up the solar irradiance forecasts generated by the two state-model at one-minute sampling of the lead time. The proposed procedure demonstrates a better performance than the main competitor based on ARIMA forecasting of the clearness index. The study was conducted with high-quality radiometric data measured on the Solar Platform of the West University of Timisoara at a high frequency of four samples per minute.