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Australian Photovoltaic Potential in Different Climate Change Scenarios: Future Projections and Associated Costs
A. Isaza, M. Kay, J. Evans, S. Bremner
Solar Radiation
Energy Transition – Integration, Storage, Sustainability, Policy, Economics, Energy Poverty, Society
Subtopic: Modelling and Scenarios for Renewables, Policy, Global Challenges
Event: 8th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion
Session: 5EO.3.3
ISBN: 3-936338-86-8
0,00 EUR
Document(s): presentation


In Australia, renewable energy generation is increasing rapidly, especially solar photovoltaic (PV) for electricity production. The PV production is modulated by climate, so understanding the future changes in the climate system could help project long-term energy output, choose optimal project sites, and accurately estimate their reliability. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to use climate projections to estimate the future changes in the PV potential in Australia and their associated costs. To achieve that aim, we use the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator coupled model (ACCESS-CM2) outputs for the historical period (1980-2010) and different climate change scenarios (2020-2080), ranging from “low-emissions/green-growth” to “high-emissions/ fossil-fueled” hypothetical pathways. We use the climate projections of temperature, solar radiation, and wind speed as inputs in a resource-to-power conversion model to analyze the performance of two different PV technologies: thin-film Cadmium Tellurium (CdTe) and multi-crystalline silicon (mc-Si) modules. Finally, we calculate the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) to analyze the potential costs associated with changes in energy production.